riskbycounty
FEMA NRI 1.19.0Updated Nov 2023 · Coverage 2014–2023Methodology

Lincoln County Disaster Risk

Lincoln County, New Mexico

FEMA Risk Rating

Relatively Low

National Percentile

79th

of 3,144 counties

State Rank

#12

of 33 (1 = highest risk)

Flood Risk

78th

percentile

Hazard Risk Breakdown

Flood

River, coastal, and surface flooding risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 78% of US counties

Wildfire

Wildland and wildland-urban interface fire risk

Relatively High

Higher than 99% of US counties

Tornado

Tornado and severe thunderstorm risk

Very Low

Higher than 10% of US counties

Earthquake

Seismic activity and ground shaking risk

Very Low

Higher than 26% of US counties

Hurricane

Tropical cyclone and hurricane risk

Very Low

Higher than 15% of US counties

Risk Overview

About Natural Disaster Risk in Lincoln County, New Mexico

Lincoln County faces elevated disaster risk

With a composite risk score of 79.48, Lincoln County ranks as relatively low but still exceeds New Mexico's state average of 58.92. The county's above-average exposure, particularly to wildfire and flooding, warrants serious preparedness attention.

Third-riskiest county in the state

Lincoln County ranks in the upper tier of New Mexico counties by disaster vulnerability, surpassed only by Lea (86.01) and Eddy (83.65). This ranking reflects the county's significant exposure to water and fire hazards.

Comparable risk to nearby counties

Lincoln County's 79.48 score falls between neighboring Eddy (83.65) and Grant (74.14), placing it firmly in the regional high-risk corridor. This geographic position in south-central New Mexico concentrates hazard exposure from multiple directions.

Wildfire and flooding lead threats

Wildfire risk reaches 98.76—the highest in the state—while flood risk scores 77.61, making these the dominant concerns for Lincoln County residents. Tornado (10.34), earthquake (25.54), and hurricane (14.98) risks remain secondary but measurable.

Wildfire and flood insurance critical

Purchase homeowners insurance with robust wildfire coverage and acquire separate flood insurance through the National Flood Insurance Program. Implement defensible space measures immediately—trim trees, clear brush, and maintain gutters—as wildfire is Lincoln County's most pressing natural hazard.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index · Narrative reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Preparedness Guide

What to Prepare for in Lincoln County

Top Hazards by Exposure

  1. #1
    WildfirePrepare
    99th percentile
  2. #2
    FloodPrepare
    78th percentile
  3. #3
    EarthquakePrepare
    26th percentile

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.19.0 · Percentiles are national (3,144 counties)

Risk Advisory: Lincoln County

Risk Verdict

Lincoln County sits below the national average for natural disaster exposure, ranking at the 79th percentile across all U.S. counties. Lincoln County's elevated composite score reflects cumulative multi-hazard exposure; households should prepare for the county's two or three primary hazard types.

Hazard Breakdown

Wildfire risk is Lincoln County's dominant natural hazard, ranked at the 99th percentile nationally under FEMA's National Risk Index. Flood ranks second at the 78th percentile nationally. Additional tracked hazards include earthquake (26th percentile), hurricane (15th percentile), tornado (10th percentile).

Preparedness Context

At the 99th percentile nationally for wildfire, Lincoln County residents should verify whether their insurance policy includes replacement cost coverage for structures and whether the insurer still writes new policies in this fire-risk zone. A secondary flood exposure at the 78th percentile nationally means Lincoln County residents face hazards from two distinct natural peril categories during different seasons. Local USFS or Cal Fire (where applicable) fire risk maps and seasonal Red Flag Warning alerts from the National Weather Service are two free resources Lincoln County residents can use to stay ahead of rapidly changing wildfire conditions.

Regional Context

A composite score 20.6 points above the New Mexico state average puts Lincoln County in a higher-risk category than most counties in the state.

Is your household prepared for Lincoln County's hazards?

Review FEMA's county-specific preparedness checklists and emergency planning guides.

FEMA Ready Guide →

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the natural disaster risk in Lincoln County, NM?
Lincoln County has a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Relatively Low, placing it in the 79th percentile nationally out of 3,144 counties. This composite score reflects the county's overall exposure to natural hazards including floods, wildfires, tornadoes, earthquakes, and hurricanes, weighted by expected annual loss and social vulnerability.
What types of natural hazards affect Lincoln County?
Lincoln County is evaluated for five major natural hazard types: wildfire (99th percentile), flooding (78th percentile), earthquake (26th percentile), hurricane (15th percentile), tornado (10th percentile). The highest-risk hazard is wildfire at the 99th percentile nationally. These scores are derived from FEMA's National Risk Index, which analyzes expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience for each hazard type.
How does Lincoln County risk compare to the New Mexico average?
Lincoln County's composite risk percentile is 79th, compared to the New Mexico state average of 59th percentile. The state's overall risk rating is Relatively Low. This means Lincoln County faces higher natural disaster risk than the typical county in New Mexico.
Is Lincoln County at risk for wildfire?
Yes, Lincoln County's wildfire risk is at the 99th percentile nationally. This places it in the top quartile for this hazard type. For flooding specifically, Lincoln County is at the 78th percentile.
How is natural disaster risk measured?
FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) calculates risk scores for 18 natural hazard types across all U.S. counties and census tracts. The composite score combines Expected Annual Loss (estimated dollar losses from each hazard), Social Vulnerability (demographic factors affecting disaster impact), and Community Resilience (ability to recover). Percentile scores rank each county against all 3,144 U.S. counties, and risk ratings range from Very Low to Very High.
Why is Lincoln County higher risk than average?
Lincoln County's composite risk score of 79th percentile is above the New Mexico state average of 59th percentile. This elevated risk is driven by wildfire exposure (99th percentile), along with flooding risk. Geographic location, terrain, climate patterns, and proximity to flood zones or fault lines all influence a county's risk profile.
By Evan Brooks, Data EditorUpdated Reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Data Source

Risk data sourced from the FEMA National Risk Index (NRI). Risk scores are relative rankings (0–100) across all US counties — not absolute risk measures. Higher scores indicate higher relative risk compared to other counties.

Disclaimer: This data is informational only. It is not financial, insurance, or legal advice. Always consult a qualified professional before making insurance or real estate decisions.