riskbycounty
FEMA NRI 1.19.0Updated Nov 2023 · Coverage 2014–2023Methodology

Jefferson County Disaster Risk

Jefferson County, Oregon

FEMA Risk Rating

Very Low

National Percentile

30th

of 3,144 counties

State Rank

#30

of 36 (1 = highest risk)

Flood Risk

37th

percentile

Hazard Risk Breakdown

Flood

River, coastal, and surface flooding risk

Very Low

Higher than 37% of US counties

Wildfire

Wildland and wildland-urban interface fire risk

Relatively High

Higher than 95% of US counties

Tornado

Tornado and severe thunderstorm risk

Very Low

Higher than 3% of US counties

Earthquake

Seismic activity and ground shaking risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 64% of US counties

Risk Overview

About Natural Disaster Risk in Jefferson County, Oregon

Jefferson: Very Low Risk Despite Earthquake Exposure

Jefferson County's composite score of 29.87 places it well below the national average, indicating very low overall disaster exposure. However, earthquake risk of 64.44 represents notable seismic vulnerability, creating a pocket of concentrated geologic hazard. The very low rating reflects minimal wildfire, flood, and tornado threats despite this singular concern.

A Safe County with Moderate Earthquake Risk

Jefferson's 29.87 composite score sits far below Oregon's state average of 63.43, ranking it among the state's low-risk communities. Yet its 64.44 earthquake risk moderately exceeds many Oregon counties, reflecting tectonic proximity despite overall safety. Wildfire (94.91), flood (36.64), and tornado (2.96) risks create a diverse but generally low-exposure profile.

Similarly Safe to Grant, Less Risky Than Hood River

Jefferson's overall risk closely mirrors Grant County (32.12) and trails Gilliam (2.74), but exceeds Harney (23.66) slightly. Its 64.44 earthquake risk ranks below Hood River (75.57) but substantially exceeds Gilliam and Harney, reflecting variable tectonic exposure. All neighbors face higher wildfire risk, creating Jefferson's distinctive seismic vulnerability.

Earthquake and Wildfire: Moderate Dual Concerns

Earthquake risk of 64.44 represents Jefferson's primary hazard, while wildfire at 94.91 creates substantial secondary exposure typical of eastern Oregon. Flood risk of 36.64 adds moderate concern in riparian zones, while tornado activity remains negligible at 2.96. The combination of moderate earthquake and significant wildfire sets Jefferson apart from purely low-risk neighbors.

Earthquake and Wildfire Coverage Recommended

Jefferson residents should consider earthquake insurance given the moderate risk of 64.44, particularly for older or unreinforced structures. Wildfire coverage is essential, as standard homeowners policies exclude it and the county's 94.91 risk remains substantial. Flood insurance is optional for most properties, though verify coverage if your home sits in designated zones.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index · Narrative reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Preparedness Guide

What to Prepare for in Jefferson County

Top Hazards by Exposure

  1. #1
    WildfirePrepare
    95th percentile
  2. #2
    EarthquakePrepare
    64th percentile
  3. #3
    FloodPrepare
    37th percentile

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.19.0 · Percentiles are national (3,144 counties)

Risk Advisory: Jefferson County

Risk Verdict

Compared to the nation's 3,144 counties, Jefferson County ranks at the 30th percentile for natural disaster risk — toward the safer end of the spectrum. The 30th percentile national ranking is one lens; Jefferson County residents also benefit from reviewing which specific hazard types drive the county's composite score and preparing accordingly.

Hazard Breakdown

Wildfire risk is Jefferson County's dominant natural hazard, ranked at the 95th percentile nationally under FEMA's National Risk Index. Earthquake ranks second at the 64th percentile nationally. Additional tracked hazards include flood (37th percentile), tornado (3th percentile).

Preparedness Context

Jefferson County sits at the 95th percentile for wildfire exposure. Signing up for Jefferson County's county emergency alert system and knowing the pre-planned evacuation route before conditions deteriorate are the two highest-value preparedness actions for residents here. Alongside wildfire, earthquake at the 64th percentile nationally means a multi-season preparedness mindset — fire season and flood or storm season often require different household plans. In Jefferson County, wildfire smoke often precedes the flame front by hours or days; households benefit from tracking EPA's AirNow.gov and having HEPA air filtration available as a first line of indoor protection when air quality alerts are issued.

Regional Context

At 33.6 points below the Oregon state average, Jefferson County is among the lower-risk counties in the state for natural disaster exposure.

Is your household prepared for Jefferson County's hazards?

Review FEMA's county-specific preparedness checklists and emergency planning guides.

FEMA Ready Guide →

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the natural disaster risk in Jefferson County, OR?
Jefferson County has a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Very Low, placing it in the 30th percentile nationally out of 3,144 counties. This composite score reflects the county's overall exposure to natural hazards including floods, wildfires, tornadoes, earthquakes, and hurricanes, weighted by expected annual loss and social vulnerability.
What types of natural hazards affect Jefferson County?
Jefferson County is evaluated for five major natural hazard types: wildfire (95th percentile), earthquake (64th percentile), flooding (37th percentile), tornado (3th percentile). The highest-risk hazard is wildfire at the 95th percentile nationally. These scores are derived from FEMA's National Risk Index, which analyzes expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience for each hazard type.
How does Jefferson County risk compare to the Oregon average?
Jefferson County's composite risk percentile is 30th, compared to the Oregon state average of 63th percentile. The state's overall risk rating is Relatively Low. This means Jefferson County faces lower natural disaster risk than the typical county in Oregon.
Is Jefferson County at risk for wildfire?
Yes, Jefferson County's wildfire risk is at the 95th percentile nationally. This places it in the top quartile for this hazard type. For flooding specifically, Jefferson County is at the 37th percentile.
How is natural disaster risk measured?
FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) calculates risk scores for 18 natural hazard types across all U.S. counties and census tracts. The composite score combines Expected Annual Loss (estimated dollar losses from each hazard), Social Vulnerability (demographic factors affecting disaster impact), and Community Resilience (ability to recover). Percentile scores rank each county against all 3,144 U.S. counties, and risk ratings range from Very Low to Very High.
Is Jefferson County a safe place to live?
Jefferson County's composite risk score of 30th percentile is below the Oregon state average of 63th percentile, indicating relatively lower exposure to natural hazards. However, no county is completely risk-free. The primary hazard type is wildfire at the 95th percentile. Residents should still maintain emergency preparedness plans and appropriate insurance coverage.
By Evan Brooks, Data EditorUpdated Reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Data Source

Risk data sourced from the FEMA National Risk Index (NRI). Risk scores are relative rankings (0–100) across all US counties — not absolute risk measures. Higher scores indicate higher relative risk compared to other counties.

Disclaimer: This data is informational only. It is not financial, insurance, or legal advice. Always consult a qualified professional before making insurance or real estate decisions.