riskbycounty
FEMA NRI 1.19.0Updated Nov 2023 · Coverage 2014–2023Methodology

Winnebago County Disaster Risk

Winnebago County, Illinois

FEMA Risk Rating

Relatively Moderate

National Percentile

92th

of 3,144 counties

State Rank

#8

of 102 (1 = highest risk)

Flood Risk

94th

percentile

Hazard Risk Breakdown

Flood

River, coastal, and surface flooding risk

Relatively High

Higher than 94% of US counties

Wildfire

Wildland and wildland-urban interface fire risk

Very Low

Higher than 33% of US counties

Tornado

Tornado and severe thunderstorm risk

Relatively High

Higher than 97% of US counties

Earthquake

Seismic activity and ground shaking risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 80% of US counties

Hurricane

Tropical cyclone and hurricane risk

Very Low

Higher than 20% of US counties

Risk Overview

About Natural Disaster Risk in Winnebago County, Illinois

Winnebago faces exceptional disaster risk

Winnebago County's composite risk score of 92.37 ranks in the "Relatively Moderate" category but sits 69% above the state average, placing it among the nation's highest-risk counties. This north-central Illinois county experiences compounded exposure to multiple severe hazards.

Among the very highest-risk Illinois counties

Winnebago County ranks in the top tier of Illinois counties for disaster risk, significantly exceeding the state average. It is one of only a handful of Illinois counties facing this level of comprehensive natural hazard exposure.

Far riskier than nearby counties

Winnebago County's score of 92.37 substantially exceeds neighboring Boone County and similar north-central Illinois peers. Only Will County (97.26) in the region carries comparable or higher overall risk.

Tornadoes and floods are primary concerns

Tornado risk (97.30) and flood risk (94.37) dominate Winnebago County's hazard profile, ranking among the worst in the nation for both. Earthquake risk (79.99) adds moderate concern, while wildfire risk (32.67) poses secondary threat.

Flood and tornado coverage are essential

Winnebago County residents must obtain separate flood insurance given the 94.37 risk score—among the nation's highest. Maximize tornado/wind/hail coverage in homeowners policies, as the 97.30 tornado risk demands comprehensive protection.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index · Narrative reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Preparedness Guide

What to Prepare for in Winnebago County

Top Hazards by Exposure

  1. #1
    TornadoPrepare
    97th percentile
  2. #2
    FloodPrepare
    94th percentile
  3. #3
    EarthquakePrepare
    80th percentile

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.19.0 · Percentiles are national (3,144 counties)

Local Resources

Risk Advisory: Winnebago County

Risk Verdict

Winnebago County's overall risk score at the 92th percentile nationally signals meaningful exposure to multiple natural hazard types. Comprehensive household preparedness — including reviewing insurance, maintaining emergency supplies, and knowing evacuation routes — is strongly recommended.

Hazard Breakdown

Tornado risk is Winnebago County's dominant natural hazard, ranked at the 97th percentile nationally under FEMA's National Risk Index. Flood ranks second at the 94th percentile nationally. Additional tracked hazards include earthquake (80th percentile), wildfire (33th percentile), hurricane (20th percentile).

Preparedness Context

Winnebago County ranks at the 97th percentile nationally for tornado exposure. Unlike many slow-onset hazards, tornadoes in Winnebago County can reach full intensity in minutes; a pre-practiced household shelter plan matters far more than stockpiled supplies. Flood is the second hazard driver for Winnebago County at the 94th percentile nationally, meaning households should maintain awareness of both severe-weather and flood-specific warning systems. Winnebago County county emergency management typically publishes annual severe-weather preparedness guides tailored to local tornado patterns; households benefit from reviewing these before storm season begins each spring.

Regional Context

Compared to other Illinois counties, Winnebago County runs 37.9 composite risk points higher than the state mean — reflecting above-average hazard concentration in this area.

Is your household prepared for Winnebago County's hazards?

Review FEMA's county-specific preparedness checklists and emergency planning guides.

FEMA Ready Guide →

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the natural disaster risk in Winnebago County, IL?
Winnebago County has a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Relatively Moderate, placing it in the 92th percentile nationally out of 3,144 counties. This composite score reflects the county's overall exposure to natural hazards including floods, wildfires, tornadoes, earthquakes, and hurricanes, weighted by expected annual loss and social vulnerability.
What types of natural hazards affect Winnebago County?
Winnebago County is evaluated for five major natural hazard types: tornado (97th percentile), flooding (94th percentile), earthquake (80th percentile), wildfire (33th percentile), hurricane (20th percentile). The highest-risk hazard is tornado at the 97th percentile nationally. These scores are derived from FEMA's National Risk Index, which analyzes expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience for each hazard type.
How does Winnebago County risk compare to the Illinois average?
Winnebago County's composite risk percentile is 92th, compared to the Illinois state average of 55th percentile. The state's overall risk rating is Relatively Low. This means Winnebago County faces higher natural disaster risk than the typical county in Illinois.
Is Winnebago County at risk for tornado?
Yes, Winnebago County's tornado risk is at the 97th percentile nationally. This places it in the top quartile for this hazard type. For flooding specifically, Winnebago County is at the 94th percentile.
How is natural disaster risk measured?
FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) calculates risk scores for 18 natural hazard types across all U.S. counties and census tracts. The composite score combines Expected Annual Loss (estimated dollar losses from each hazard), Social Vulnerability (demographic factors affecting disaster impact), and Community Resilience (ability to recover). Percentile scores rank each county against all 3,144 U.S. counties, and risk ratings range from Very Low to Very High.
Why is Winnebago County higher risk than average?
Winnebago County's composite risk score of 92th percentile is above the Illinois state average of 55th percentile. This elevated risk is driven by tornado exposure (97th percentile), along with flooding and earthquake risk. Geographic location, terrain, climate patterns, and proximity to flood zones or fault lines all influence a county's risk profile.

Counties with Similar Risk

Sangamon County

Illinois

-0.7

Relatively Moderate

92th percentile

Madison County

Illinois

+1.0

Relatively Moderate

93th percentile

McHenry County

Illinois

-1.6

Relatively Moderate

91th percentile

By Evan Brooks, Data EditorUpdated Reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Data Source

Risk data sourced from the FEMA National Risk Index (NRI). Risk scores are relative rankings (0–100) across all US counties — not absolute risk measures. Higher scores indicate higher relative risk compared to other counties.

Disclaimer: This data is informational only. It is not financial, insurance, or legal advice. Always consult a qualified professional before making insurance or real estate decisions.

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